Key Takeaways
- BLS projects the U.S. economy will add 5.2 million jobs between 2024 and 2034, a 3.1% growth rate overall
- Healthcare and social assistance remains the single biggest driver of new jobs - home health and personal care aides alone are projected to add 739,800 jobs, more than any other occupation
- Computer and mathematical occupations are the second-fastest-growing occupational group (+10.1%), more than three times the economy-wide average
- Fastest percentage growth: nurse practitioners (+40.1%), data scientists (+33.5%), and information security analysts (+28.5%)
- Software developers remain a top-10 job-growth occupation by raw numbers (+267,700 jobs) with a $133,080 median wage - despite AI-driven disruption concerns in tech hiring
- Skilled trades - electricians, industrial machinery mechanics - are growing faster than the last major projection cycle predicted, as demand outpaces the pipeline of trained workers
- June 2026's soft jobs report (57,000 added, 4.2% unemployment) is a reminder that the 10-year trend and the current month can diverge - both matter for career planning
The national unemployment rate was 4.2% in June 2026, and the economy added just 57,000 jobs that month — well below expectations, with leisure and hospitality actually losing jobs while healthcare and professional services kept growing. It’s a mixed, uneven labor market, and it makes the question of where the durable job growth actually is more relevant than it’s been in years.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes 10-year occupational projections, and the current cycle (2024–2034) is the clearest read available on where employment is headed. I’m updating this page with that data, replacing projections from prior decades that are now well out of date.
The Occupations Adding the Most Jobs (2024–2034)
BLS Employment Projections data shows where the largest number of new positions are actually expected, not just the fastest percentage growth — a more useful lens if you care about how many total openings will exist:
| Occupation | 2024 Employment | Projected 2034 Employment | New Jobs | Median Annual Wage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home health and personal care aides | 4.35M | 5.09M | +739,800 | $34,900 |
| Software developers | 1.69M | 1.96M | +267,700 | $133,080 |
| Stockers and order fillers | 2.76M | 3.00M | +235,000 | $37,090 |
| Fast food and counter workers | 3.80M | 4.03M | +233,200 | $30,480 |
| Registered nurses | 3.39M | 3.56M | +166,100 | $93,600 |
| Medical and health services managers | 616,200 | 759,100 | +142,900 | $117,960 |
| Financial managers | 868,600 | 997,400 | +128,800 | $161,700 |
| Nurse practitioners | 320,400 | 448,800 | +128,400 | $129,210 |
| Computer and information systems managers | 667,100 | 768,700 | +101,600 | $171,200 |
| Data scientists | 245,900 | 328,300 | +82,500 | $112,590 |
More than half of the largest job-growth occupations are in healthcare or directly support an aging population’s care needs. That’s been true for two decades of BLS projections running now — it isn’t a new trend, but it’s an even stronger one this cycle.
Where the Fastest Percentage Growth Is
Raw job counts favor already-large occupations. Looking at percentage growth instead surfaces smaller but rapidly expanding fields — often a better signal for where demand is outpacing supply of trained workers:
- Nurse practitioners: +40.1% — the fastest-growing healthcare occupation in this cycle, driven by expanded scope-of-practice laws and primary care shortages
- Data scientists: +33.5% — reflects continued enterprise investment in analytics and AI infrastructure
- Information security analysts: +28.5% — cybersecurity hiring hasn’t slowed despite broader tech-sector volatility
- Medical and health services managers: +23.2% — healthcare’s administrative and management layer is growing alongside clinical roles
- Home health and personal care aides: +17.0% — the largest occupation in the entire economy is also still growing fast in percentage terms, not just raw numbers
Wind turbine service technicians and solar photovoltaic installers remain the two fastest-growing occupations by percentage of any in the BLS database, though the total number of jobs involved is small (under 20,000 combined) — a reminder that “fastest growing” and “most opportunities” aren’t the same question.
Skilled Trades Are Quietly a Strong Bet
Electricians (+9.5%, $62,350 median wage), industrial machinery mechanics (+16.1%, $63,760), and construction laborers (+7.3%, $46,730) all show solid growth — and anecdotally, trade programs report demand from employers outpacing the number of workers coming through apprenticeships.
Unlike software roles, these occupations aren’t exposed to the same AI-driven hiring slowdown currently playing out in parts of tech. If you’re weighing a vocational path against a four-year degree, this cycle’s data is a genuine point in favor of the trades — not just a consolation option.
Where the Softness Is
Tech hiring has been the most-discussed weak spot of 2026’s labor market — not because software roles are disappearing from the BLS 10-year projection (they aren’t; software developers still add nearly 268,000 jobs this decade), but because near-term hiring has slowed as companies weigh AI-assisted productivity gains against headcount. I cover this shift in more detail in my tech layoffs and the AI hiring shift guide.
Leisure and hospitality lost jobs in the June 2026 report specifically, a sector that tends to be more sensitive to discretionary consumer spending than healthcare or professional services.
Job market data shifts monthly and BLS projections update on a multi-year cycle — subscribe here and I’ll flag meaningful changes as they land.
How to Use This Data for a Career Decision
A couple of practical notes if you’re weighing a degree, certification, or career change against this data:
- Weigh total openings against percentage growth. A field growing 5% with 500,000 jobs added has more actual opportunities than one growing 40% off a tiny base.
- Check the education/training path against the wage. Several of the fastest-growing skilled trades pay competitively without a four-year degree — factor in the earnings-versus-debt tradeoff honestly.
- Treat 10-year projections as a backdrop, not a guarantee. A single month’s jobs report (like June 2026’s soft 57,000 print) doesn’t invalidate a decade-long trend, but sector-specific disruption — like AI’s effect on entry-level tech hiring — can move faster than a 10-year BLS cycle captures.
Looking Ahead: 2027 Job Market Outlook
BLS updates its 10-year occupational projections roughly every two years, so the current 2024–2034 cycle should remain the reference point through 2027. What I’m watching in the meantime: whether AI-driven productivity tools continue to soften entry-level hiring in software and other white-collar roles faster than the multi-year projections anticipated, and whether the healthcare hiring boom continues at its current pace as an aging population’s care needs grow. I’ll update this page if BLS releases a new projection cycle or if monthly employment data shows a meaningful trend shift. Related reading:
- Tech layoffs and the AI shift: what ongoing job cuts mean for your career and wallet
- The tax and financial planning playbook for 2026–2027
