Key Takeaways
- Public four-year in-state tuition: $11,950 for 2025-26, up 2.9%; projected to rise about 2.3% for 2026-27
- Private nonprofit four-year tuition: $45,000 for 2025-26, up 4.0% nominal (only 1.4% after adjusting for inflation)
- Sticker price isn't what most families pay: average net tuition after grants and aid is about $2,300 at public in-state schools and $16,910 at private nonprofit schools
- A new OBBBA endowment tax (1.4%-8%, tiered) hits roughly 15 of the wealthiest universities starting in 2026, which could pressure financial aid budgets at those specific schools
- Tuition has historically risen at roughly twice the inflation rate, though that gap has narrowed in recent years
Published tuition at public four-year, in-state schools hit $11,950 for the 2025-26 school year, up 2.9% from the year before. Private nonprofit four-year tuition climbed to $45,000, up 4.0% before adjusting for inflation.
For 2026-27, College Board projections put the next increase at around 2.3% for public four-year schools — a smaller jump than in past years, but still outpacing general inflation.
A few years back I wrote about my own MBA tuition rising 5% a year while I was in school. That trend never really stopped — it’s just slowed down some.
What Tuition Actually Costs Right Now
For the 2025-26 academic year, average published tuition and fees break down like this:
| School Type | 2025-26 Tuition | YoY Increase |
|---|---|---|
| Public 4-year, in-state | $11,950 | +2.9% |
| Public 4-year, out-of-state | $31,880 | — |
| Public 2-year (community college) | $4,150 | +2.7% |
| Private nonprofit 4-year | $45,000 | +4.0% |
These are sticker prices — what a school publishes as its official cost of attendance before any grants or aid. They’re the number that shows up in headlines, and the number that scares a lot of families away from schools they could actually afford.
Sticker Price vs. What Families Actually Pay
This is the part that gets lost every year: the average student doesn’t pay the sticker price.
After grants and aid, the average net tuition for first-time, full-time students at public four-year in-state schools runs around $2,300. At private nonprofit four-year schools, the average net price is about $16,910 — down from $19,810 (in today’s dollars) back in 2006-07.
In other words, adjusted for inflation and aid, net tuition has actually fallen over the past two decades at both public and private nonprofit schools, even as the published price has kept climbing. Sticker price and what you’ll actually be billed can be two very different numbers, and the gap tends to be widest at the private schools with the biggest headline price tags.
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Why Tuition Keeps Rising (Even as the Pace Slows)
The old rule of thumb — tuition rises at roughly twice the general inflation rate — still holds up over the long run, but the last couple of years have been milder than that. Public tuition rose 2.9% against roughly 2.6% inflation, which is close to even, not double.
Part of that is state and institutional aid absorbing more of the increase before it reaches a student’s bill. Part of it is schools being more cautious about sticker-price increases after years of enrollment pressure and public scrutiny over college costs.
The New Wrinkle: OBBBA’s Endowment Tax
Starting in 2026, the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBBA) created a new tiered tax on the investment income of the wealthiest college endowments — schools with more than 3,000 tuition-paying students and high endowment-per-student ratios. Rates run from 1.4% up to 8%, depending on the tier, and roughly 15 universities are expected to land in the higher brackets.
This mostly hits elite private research universities, not your average public or regional private school. But it’s worth watching: schools facing the higher tax tiers have flagged that unrestricted budget categories — financial aid, research funding, and campus maintenance — are the most likely places to absorb the hit if a school decides to offset the new tax rather than raise tuition further.
What This Means If You’re Planning for These Costs
If you’re saving ahead of time, the tools haven’t changed even if the numbers have. I’ve written before about how to choose a 529 plan, how to pay for college using savings, aid, and alternatives, and the tradeoff between funding a 529 versus your own retirement. All three are worth a look before you assume the sticker price is what you’ll actually owe.
Common Mistakes Families Make When Budgeting for Tuition
Ruling out a school based on sticker price alone. The net price calculator every school is required to post (search “[school name] net price calculator”) gives a much more realistic estimate than the published cost of attendance.
Not comparing net price across schools. A $45,000 private school with generous aid can end up cheaper than a $12,000 public school with none. Compare net price, not published price.
Waiting too long to start saving. Even modest 529 contributions made early compound over more years than large contributions made late. The account matters less than the head start.
Assuming a public school is automatically the “safe” choice. It usually is cheaper, but out-of-state public tuition ($31,880 on average) can rival or exceed a private school’s net price after aid.
Looking Ahead: 2027-28 Outlook
I’ll be watching whether the 2026-27 increase actually lands near the projected 2.3%, or whether inflation and state budget pressure push it higher once real numbers come in this fall. I’ll also be watching how many schools end up in the higher endowment tax tiers once 2026 enrollment and endowment figures are finalized, and whether any of them respond by trimming financial aid rather than absorbing the cost elsewhere.
I’ll update this page once the College Board’s next Trends in College Pricing report comes out, typically in October or November.
