2026 Social Security COLA Confirmed at 2.8%, Plus the Latest 2027 Estimate

This page tracks Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustments year by year — confirmed figures and the latest forward estimates. The 2026 COLA is confirmed at 2.8%, effective January 2026. The 2027 COLA estimate has narrowed to 3.4%–3.6% after July’s inflation data came in, down from the 3.6%–3.8% range I was tracking in late July and well off the 4.7% peak from June.

I’ve also added what the latest Trustees Report says about Medicare Part B premiums for 2027 and the trust fund outlook — both directly affect what actually lands in your bank account, not just the headline COLA percentage.

2027 COLA Estimate: 3.4%–3.6% (As of Late August 2026)

The range has tightened and moved lower since my last update. The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) cut its 2027 COLA projection to 3.6% on August 13, down from the 3.8% it had held for the two prior months.

Independent analyst Mary Johnson’s estimate fell further, to 3.4% — down from 3.7% a month earlier and a full 1.3 points below her 4.7% June peak. AARP entered the picture in mid-July with its own first-ever COLA projection, at 3.6%, matching TSCL.

The trigger was the July Consumer Price Index, released August 12, which showed inflation cooling to 3.4% year-over-year (down from 3.5% in June). “It’s doubtful that anyone is celebrating because 3.4% is still higher than the average,” Johnson said in a statement. Lower inflation is good news generally, but it works against retirees here — a smaller CPI-W gain means a smaller COLA.

The next data point is the August CPI-W reading, due out in mid-September. The official 2027 COLA is calculated from the average of the July, August, and September CPI-W readings compared to the same three months a year earlier — July’s number is locked in, so two of the three inputs are still to come.

What Each Estimate Would Mean in Dollars

The average retired worker Social Security benefit is about $2,084.40 a month as of June 2026, reflecting the confirmed 2.8% COLA.

Here’s what that narrower, lower range looks like for two hypothetical retirees:

Mark, who receives the average benefit of about $2,084 a month, would see between $71 and $75 more a month depending on which estimate holds — a $4 spread, and noticeably smaller than the roughly $19 spread I was seeing back in June.

Sarah, who receives $1,500 a month, would see between $51 and $54 more a month across the same range.

Your own dollar impact also depends heavily on where you live and what your benefit history looks like — see my breakdown of the average Social Security check by state for how the national average compares to your state.

The official 2027 COLA will be announced on October 14, 2026. I’ll update this page when the number is confirmed — subscribe here to get notified.

Federal employees watching Social Security COLA trends may also want to keep an eye on the 2027 GS pay raise fight, where a similar push-and-pull is playing out over civilian pay.

Medicare Part B in 2027: What Could Shrink Your Raise

Medicare Part B premiums are deducted directly from Social Security checks, so the Part B increase is the other half of the COLA math that many people miss.

The 2026 Part B premium is $202.90/month, up from $185 in 2025. For 2027, the latest Medicare Trustees Report projects a standard premium of $209.50 — a $6.60 increase. But the trustees have repeatedly underestimated in recent years, and private forecasters are projecting somewhere between $216 and $219.

Here’s why that matters for your net raise. Under a 3.6% COLA, the average check goes up about $75 a month. Subtract the trustees’ $6.60 Part B increase and the net raise is roughly $68. If the premium instead lands around $218, the net raise shrinks to about $60 — a fifth of the headline COLA gone before it reaches you.

The official 2027 Part B premium (and the income-related IRMAA surcharge brackets) will be announced in November 2026. For what’s already changed this year, see my rundown of 2026 Medicare coverage changes.

The 2032 Trust Fund Deadline

The other number from the latest Trustees Report worth knowing: Social Security’s main retirement trust fund is now projected to be depleted in late 2032. If Congress does nothing before then, incoming payroll taxes would cover only about 78% of scheduled benefits.

In dollar terms, a 22% across-the-board cut would take today’s $2,084 average check down by roughly $459 a month. That’s the mechanical math — not a prediction that it happens.

For what it’s worth, Congress has never actually let a cut like this take effect. The last time the fund got this close, in 1983, lawmakers passed a package of fixes (including gradually raising the full retirement age to 67 — a change that just fully phased in for people born in 1960 or later). The options on the table this time — payroll tax changes, benefit formula adjustments, retirement age changes — all get more painful the longer Congress waits, which is why I’d expect this to become a bigger political story as 2032 gets closer.

If you’re planning around claiming ages and benefit timing, my guide to key retirement ages for 401(k), IRA, and Social Security covers the milestones that matter.

2026 COLA: Confirmed at 2.8%

The SSA confirmed the 2026 COLA at 2.8%, effective January 2026 — up from 2.5% in 2025. This pushed the average retired worker benefit to about $2,084.40 a month as of June 2026.

For someone who was receiving $2,000 a month in 2025, the 2.8% COLA added about $56 a month, or roughly $672 over the year — before the Medicare Part B increase was deducted.

Other 2026 Amounts Tied to the COLA

The COLA doesn’t just move retirement checks. A few other 2026 numbers moved with it that readers ask me about a lot:

SSI payments. The maximum federal SSI payment rose to $994/month for an individual (up $27) and $1,491/month for a couple (up $41). Your actual amount can be lower based on income and living situation, and some states add a supplement on top — my full SSI guide covers the reduction rules.

The earnings limit if you work while collecting. If you’re collecting Social Security before full retirement age and still working, the 2026 earnings limit is $24,480. Earn above that and the SSA withholds $1 in benefits for every $2 over the limit.

In the year you reach full retirement age, a higher limit of $65,160 applies (with a gentler $1-for-$3 withholding), and it only counts earnings in the months before your birthday month. Withheld benefits aren’t lost forever — your check is recalculated upward at full retirement age to credit the months benefits were withheld.

2025 COLA: Confirmed at 2.5%

With slowing inflation, the 2025 COLA was confirmed at 2.5%, announced in October 2024. This was 0.7% lower than the 3.2% increase in 2024 and added roughly $50 more a month for the average retired worker.

How COLA Gets Calculated

The COLA annual increase is based on the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) for the third quarter of the current year compared to the third quarter of the previous year in which a COLA became effective.

The SSA publishes the official COLA in mid-October each year, with changes effective the following January. Analysts like Mary Johnson, TSCL, and now AARP track monthly CPI-W data to produce early estimates throughout the year — these tighten up significantly as the July and August figures come in, which is exactly what’s happening right now.

One limitation worth knowing: CPI-W tracks urban workers’ spending patterns, not retirees’. Older Americans spend a higher share of income on healthcare and housing than CPI-W reflects. A separate index (CPI-E, for Elderly) has historically tracked higher than CPI-W, but the SSA is legally required to use CPI-W.

COLA History: Where 2027 Would Rank

Common Issues to Watch Out For

I get questions about COLA every year around this time, so here are a few things people commonly get tripped up on.

Forecasts aren’t official. Numbers like “3.6%” or “3.4%” you see in the news are estimates from independent analysts, not SSA figures. The real number isn’t locked until the October 14 announcement.

Medicare Part B eats into the raise. If your Part B premium rises at the same time (it usually does), your net check increase will be smaller than the headline COLA percentage suggests. See the 2027 Part B section above for the actual math.

The earnings limit surprises early claimers. If you claim before full retirement age and keep working, earning over $24,480 in 2026 triggers benefit withholding. I hear from readers every year who didn’t know this until a chunk of their check disappeared.

SSI and SSDI get the same COLA percentage as retirement benefits, but the dollar impact looks different because base payment amounts differ significantly between programs.

The COLA is based on CPI-W, not CPI-U or CPI-E. CPI-W tracks urban wage earners, not retirees specifically — one reason some advocacy groups argue the COLA understates the inflation seniors actually experience on healthcare and housing.

The October announcement isn’t your personal notice. October 14 confirms the overall percentage for everyone, but your own exact new dollar amount doesn’t show up until later — SSA typically posts individual COLA notices in the my Social Security online message center starting in late November, with mailed paper notices following in mid-December for anyone not signed up for online-only delivery. Don’t click links in unsolicited emails claiming your amount is “ready to view” — go directly to ssa.gov/myaccount instead of through the email.

Manual math rarely matches your notice exactly — even after accounting for Medicare. If you calculate prior benefit × (1 + COLA%) yourself, expect your answer to be a few cents to a dollar or more off from your official SSA notice, and it’s not an error. Per SSA’s own COLA methodology, the raise is applied to your Primary Insurance Amount and rounded down to the next lower dime, then your Medicare Part B premium is subtracted and the result is rounded down again to the next lower whole dollar. That double rounding compounds further if you receive a spousal or dual benefit, since each component gets rounded separately before being combined.

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