2026 Social Security COLA Confirmed at 2.8%, Plus the Latest 2027 Estimate

This page tracks Social Security Cost-of-Living Adjustments year by year — confirmed figures and the latest forward estimates. The 2026 COLA is confirmed at 2.8%, effective January 2026. The 2027 COLA is currently tracking around 3.8%, after briefly spiking toward 4.7% in June.

I’ve also added what the latest Trustees Report says about Medicare Part B premiums for 2027 and the trust fund outlook — both directly affect what actually lands in your bank account, not just the headline COLA percentage.

2027 COLA Estimate: ~3.8% (As of Mid-July 2026)

Independent analyst Mary Johnson estimated the 2027 COLA as high as 4.7% in June — which would have made it the fourth-largest COLA since 1992, trailing only 8.7% in 2023, 5.9% in 2022, and 5.8% in 2009. The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) has a more conservative estimate of 3.8%, down slightly from 3.9% in May.

The June spike traced back to energy prices tied to the Iran war — fuel oil and gasoline both jumped sharply. With that conflict de-escalating and fuel prices easing, the higher-end estimates have come back down, and most trackers are now clustering in the 2.8%–3.8% range.

The next data point I’m watching: the June CPI-W reading lands in mid-July. The official 2027 COLA is calculated from the July, August, and September CPI-W figures, so estimates will tighten up significantly over the next three months. The swing this year has been unusual — early forecasts pointed to a modest 1%–2% adjustment before the June energy spike briefly pushed estimates near record territory, and they’ve now settled back down.

What Each Estimate Would Mean in Dollars

The average retired worker Social Security benefit is about $2,082.76 a month as of May 2026, reflecting the confirmed 2.8% COLA.

Here’s what that range looks like for two hypothetical retirees:

Mark, who receives the average benefit of about $2,083 a month, would see roughly $79 more a month under a 3.8% COLA, or $98 more a month under the higher 4.7% estimate — a difference of about $19 a month depending on which forecast holds.

Sarah, who receives $1,500 a month, would see about $57 more under a 3.8% COLA, or $71 more under a 4.7% COLA.

The official 2027 COLA will be announced in October 2026. I’ll update this page when the number is confirmed. Subscribe here to get notified.

Federal employees watching Social Security COLA trends may also want to keep an eye on the 2027 GS pay raise fight, where a similar push-and-pull is playing out over civilian pay.

Medicare Part B in 2027: What Could Shrink Your Raise

Medicare Part B premiums are deducted directly from Social Security checks, so the Part B increase is the other half of the COLA math that many people miss.

The 2026 Part B premium is $202.90/month, up from $185 in 2025. For 2027, the latest Medicare Trustees Report projects a standard premium of $209.50 — a $6.60 increase. But the trustees have repeatedly underestimated in recent years, and private forecasters are projecting somewhere between $216 and $219.

Here’s why that matters for your net raise. Under a 3.8% COLA, the average check goes up about $79 a month. Subtract the trustees’ $6.60 Part B increase and the net raise is roughly $72. If the premium instead lands around $218, the net raise shrinks to about $63 — nearly a fifth of the headline COLA gone before it reaches you.

The official 2027 Part B premium (and the income-related IRMAA surcharge brackets) will be announced in November 2026. For what’s already changed this year, see my rundown of 2026 Medicare coverage changes.

The 2032 Trust Fund Deadline

The other number from the latest Trustees Report worth knowing: Social Security’s main retirement trust fund is now projected to be depleted in late 2032. If Congress does nothing before then, incoming payroll taxes would cover only about 78% of scheduled benefits.

In dollar terms, a 22% across-the-board cut would take today’s $2,083 average check down by roughly $458 a month. That’s the mechanical math — not a prediction that it happens.

For what it’s worth, Congress has never actually let a cut like this take effect. The last time the fund got this close, in 1983, lawmakers passed a package of fixes (including gradually raising the full retirement age to 67 — a change that just fully phased in for people born in 1960 or later). The options on the table this time — payroll tax changes, benefit formula adjustments, retirement age changes — all get more painful the longer Congress waits, which is why I’d expect this to become a bigger political story as 2032 gets closer.

If you’re planning around claiming ages and benefit timing, my guide to key retirement ages for 401(k), IRA, and Social Security covers the milestones that matter.

2026 COLA: Confirmed at 2.8%

The SSA confirmed the 2026 COLA at 2.8%, effective January 2026 — up from 2.5% in 2025. This pushed the average retired worker benefit to about $2,082.76 a month as of May 2026.

For someone who was receiving $2,000 a month in 2025, the 2.8% COLA added about $56 a month, or roughly $672 over the year — before the Medicare Part B increase was deducted.

Other 2026 Amounts Tied to the COLA

The COLA doesn’t just move retirement checks. A few other 2026 numbers moved with it that readers ask me about a lot:

SSI payments. The maximum federal SSI payment rose to $994/month for an individual (up $27) and $1,491/month for a couple (up $41). Your actual amount can be lower based on income and living situation, and some states add a supplement on top — my full SSI guide covers the reduction rules.

The earnings limit if you work while collecting. If you’re collecting Social Security before full retirement age and still working, the 2026 earnings limit is $24,480. Earn above that and the SSA withholds $1 in benefits for every $2 over the limit.

In the year you reach full retirement age, a higher limit of $65,160 applies (with a gentler $1-for-$3 withholding), and it only counts earnings in the months before your birthday month. Withheld benefits aren’t lost forever — your check is recalculated upward at full retirement age to credit the months benefits were withheld.

2025 COLA: Confirmed at 2.5%

With slowing inflation, the 2025 COLA was confirmed at 2.5%, announced in October 2024. This was 0.7% lower than the 3.2% increase in 2024 and added roughly $50 more a month for the average retired worker.

How COLA Gets Calculated

The COLA annual increase is based on the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) for the third quarter of the current year compared to the third quarter of the previous year in which a COLA became effective.

The SSA publishes the official COLA in mid-October each year, with changes effective the following January. Analysts like Mary Johnson and TSCL track monthly CPI-W data to produce early estimates throughout the year — these tighten up significantly as the July and August figures come in.

One limitation worth knowing: CPI-W tracks urban workers’ spending patterns, not retirees’. Older Americans spend a higher share of income on healthcare and housing than CPI-W reflects. A separate index (CPI-E, for Elderly) has historically tracked higher than CPI-W, but the SSA is legally required to use CPI-W.

COLA History: Where 2027 Would Rank

Common Issues to Watch Out For

I get questions about COLA every year around this time, so here are a few things people commonly get tripped up on.

Forecasts aren’t official. Numbers like “4.7%” or “3.8%” you see in the news are estimates from independent analysts, not SSA figures. The real number isn’t locked until the October announcement.

Medicare Part B eats into the raise. If your Part B premium rises at the same time (it usually does), your net check increase will be smaller than the headline COLA percentage suggests. See the 2027 Part B section above for the actual math.

The earnings limit surprises early claimers. If you claim before full retirement age and keep working, earning over $24,480 in 2026 triggers benefit withholding. I hear from readers every year who didn’t know this until a chunk of their check disappeared.

SSI and SSDI get the same COLA percentage as retirement benefits, but the dollar impact looks different because base payment amounts differ significantly between programs.

The COLA is based on CPI-W, not CPI-U or CPI-E. CPI-W tracks urban wage earners, not retirees specifically — one reason some advocacy groups argue the COLA understates the inflation seniors actually experience on healthcare and housing.

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