Trump’s Tariffs in 2026: Where Things Actually Stand This Week

The 10% global tariff surcharge currently in effect on most US imports expires by law at 12:01 a.m. on July 24, 2026 — this week — and there’s no extension bill moving through Congress to stop it. What happens after that is genuinely unsettled, so here’s the full timeline of how tariffs got here and what’s actually still in effect versus what’s about to lapse.

How We Got Here: The Short Version

President Trump built his 2025–2026 tariff program on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) — first with tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China tied to a declared fentanyl emergency, then with broader “reciprocal” tariffs on most other countries tied to the US trade deficit.

On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court ruled in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump and Trump v. V.O.S. Selections, Inc. that IEEPA simply doesn’t give the president authority to impose tariffs at all. Both sets of IEEPA tariffs were struck down.

Four days later, Trump responded with a different legal tool: Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which lets a president impose a temporary import surcharge — up to 15%, for up to 150 days — to address a “large and serious” balance-of-payments problem, without needing Congress to sign off first. He set it at 10%, effective February 24, 2026.

That 150-day clock runs out this week.

What’s Actually in Effect Right Now

It’s easy to lose track of which tariffs are which, so here’s the state of play as of mid-July 2026:

• Section 122 global surcharge (10%): In effect since February 24, expires by statute July 24, 2026. A Court of International Trade panel actually invalidated this one too back in May, but that ruling only protects the two specific companies that sued — everyone else is still paying it in the meantime.
• EU-specific rate (15%): A US-EU trade deal took effect July 1, 2026, setting a 15% all-inclusive ceiling on most EU-origin goods that replaces the Section 122 rate for that bloc specifically.
• Section 232 tariffs — untouched by any of this: Steel, aluminum, and copper at 50%; autos and semiconductors at 25%; lumber at 10%. These rely on a completely different legal authority than IEEPA or Section 122, so the Supreme Court ruling doesn’t touch them, and they aren’t expiring this week.
• China-specific rate: Currently the highest of any major trading partner at roughly 23.4% effective, combining several overlapping tariff actions.

Combined, the overall effective US tariff rate — average duty collected across all imports — sits around 7.2%, per the nonpartisan Penn Wharton Budget Model. For context, the effective rate was under 3% before this tariff program began.

What Happens When Section 122 Expires

Extending Section 122 past its 150-day limit requires an actual Act of Congress — the president can’t just renew it by proclamation. As of this week, no extension bill is moving, and if anything the momentum in Congress runs the other way: the proposed “Reclaim Trade Powers Act” would restrict presidential tariff authority rather than extend it.

The administration’s fallback plan is Section 301 — a slower, more procedural tariff authority that requires a formal investigation, but doesn’t carry Section 122’s 150-day sunset. The US Trade Representative has reportedly been racing to complete Section 301 investigations covering roughly 46 countries at a proposed 12.5% rate, timed to land right around the Section 122 expiration.

Realistically, there are three ways the next few weeks could go: Section 301 tariffs are ready in time and replace Section 122 with minimal gap; there’s a temporary lapse in tariffs while Section 301 finishes; or Congress or the courts intervene in a way that changes the calculus entirely (the Court of International Trade challenge is still working through appeals). I’ll update this page as soon as one of these plays out.

Subscribe or follow us and I’ll flag it the moment the Section 122 situation resolves one way or the other.

Did Tariffs Actually Cause a Recession?

Back when the IEEPA tariffs first hit in April 2025, forecasts were genuinely dire — JPMorgan put recession odds as high as 60% if the tariffs held. That’s not how it’s played out so far. Q1 2026 GDP grew at a 2.0% annualized rate, an improvement from Q4 2025’s 0.5%, and current 12-month recession probability estimates from major forecasters run more like 20-30% (Goldman Sachs at 20%, RSM at 30%) — a real risk, but not the crisis some early forecasts implied.

Where the tariffs have clearly shown up is in prices. The PCE price index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — hit 4.5% recently, the highest reading since early 2023, and tariff pass-through into consumer goods is a major driver. Economists remain split on exactly how much of that cost lands on consumers versus importers versus foreign exporters, but most estimates put the consumer share well above half.

What This Means for Your Wallet Right Now

Online shopping from overseas got more expensive. The “de minimis” exemption that let low-value international packages (under $800) enter duty-free ended August 29, 2025. If you regularly buy from overseas sellers, expect real fees on top of the listed price now, not the free, fast shipping you may remember.

Farm country got a specific aid package. The administration rolled out $12 billion in tariff-funded relief for farmers hurt by trade disruption — $11 billion in one-time Farmer Bridge Assistance payments (corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, rice, and other row crops), which USDA has already disbursed, plus $1 billion still being finalized for specialty crops and sugar producers.

Certain goods are just going to cost more, full stop. Steel, aluminum, and copper tariffs at 50% aren’t tied to the Section 122 drama and aren’t going anywhere — anything built with those materials (appliances, cars, construction) carries that cost structurally now, regardless of how the Section 122 expiration resolves.

Common Issues to Watch Out For

• Confusing Section 122 with Section 232. Section 122’s fate is genuinely uncertain this week; Section 232 tariffs (steel, aluminum, autos) are unaffected by any of this and aren’t expiring.
• Assuming a Supreme Court loss ends all tariffs. The Court only ruled on IEEPA specifically. The administration has multiple other tariff authorities (Section 122, Section 301, Section 232) and has shown it will pivot between them.
• Panic-selling on tariff headlines. Current recession odds (20-30% per major forecasters) are elevated but not the near-certainty some 2025 forecasts suggested — a diversified, long-term portfolio has weathered worse.
• Forgetting the de minimis change when ordering from overseas. A lot of shoppers are still getting surprised by duties on international orders more than a year after the exemption ended.

What I’m Watching Next

The two things that matter most in the next few weeks: whether Section 301 tariffs are ready before the Section 122 gap opens up, and whether the Court of International Trade appeal produces a ruling that reshapes the administration’s options. If you hold individual stocks in tariff-exposed sectors (autos, retail, industrials), or you’re deciding whether to harvest capital losses before year-end, this is worth tracking closely rather than reacting to any single headline.

If you don’t already have one, this kind of policy uncertainty is a good prompt to build or top up an emergency fund — a high-yield savings account is the right place to park it while it’s sitting idle. And if your business or investments benefit from the OBBB’s business and energy provisions, it’s worth checking whether any of that offsets tariff-related cost increases you’re seeing elsewhere.